Political drivers of China's nuclear buildup: implications for the United States

Abstract: China's nuclear buildup is not only a response to perceived changes in its external environment but also a result of significant shifts in its internal decision-making dynamics, which are not yet well understood by international analysts. This presentation aims to provide a holistic and nuanced picture of the key drivers behind China's nuclear buildup by examining how domestic factors have shaped its nuclear thinking and policymaking in recent years. It will also discuss why it is crucial for U.S. decision-makers and policy analysts to delve deeper into China's internal thinking processes and to develop countermeasures that avoid provoking counterproductive Chinese reactions, which could ultimately undermine U.S. deterrence. Finally, it offers thoughts on how to effectively engage China on nuclear and strategic security issues.

Tong Zhao is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, working for both the Nuclear Policy Program and Carnegie China. Formerly based in Beijing, he now conducts research in Washington on strategic security issues, such as nuclear weapons policy, deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, missile defense, hypersonic weapons, regional security issues in Asia Pacific, and China’s security and foreign policy. He is also a nonresident researcher at the Science and Global Security Program of Princeton University, an associate editor of the journal Science & Global Security, and a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials. He was a virtual visiting research fellow at the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the Sandia National Laboratories, a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at Harvard University, a nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum, and worked for the Office of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Government of Beijing Municipality.