Commercial SmallSats and National Security: Opportunities, Industry Dynamics, and Critical Next Steps

Abstract: Commercial smallsats are increasingly relevant to US national security. Smallsat constellations can provide insight into the on-orbit environment, improve confidence in data and intelligence, aid in deterrence, and support allies. Smallsat architectures are widely viewed as key to greater resilience. The dynamics of the smallsat ecosystem are distinctly American and distinctly commercial, with activity concentrated in a few companies. Smallsat deployments have transformed the LEO orbital environment. In the future, smallsat capability may be at risk, as companies seek to move from investment-funded to revenue-driven. Two major US broadband constellations, Starlink and Kuiper, will have a disproportionate effect on the US space industrial base, launch rates, and may even affect the availability of other types of smallsat for national security applications.  

Maintaining the US national security advantage associated with commercial smallsat capabilities will likely require specific strategies, including alignment of acquisitions with industrial base objectives, government insight into the financial stability of key firms, and systematic assessment of the relative value of different types of smallsat capabilities to national security objectives. This talk will present evidence-driven analysis of commercial smallsat businesses and offer recommendations for next steps to preserve important capability.

Ms. Carissa Bryce Christensen is the Chief Executive Officer and founder of BryceTech companies in the US and the UK. She previously co-founded defense contractor The Tauri Group, acquired by LMI in 2019, and quantum computing software firm QxBranch, acquired by Rigetti Computing in 2019. She is an active tech investor and has served on several early-stage boards. Ms. Christensen is an internationally recognized expert on the satellite and space industry, known for rigorous analysis and innovative, data-driven strategy. She co-chairs the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Space, chairs the US board of the UN-affiliated Space Generation Advisory Council, and serves on the Advisory Council of the Aerospace Corporation Center for Space Policy and Strategy.