Measuring Power: Power Cycles and the Risks of Great Power War in the 21st Century

Over the past decade, American foreign policy discussions have displayed growing concerns that U.S. power has been declining relative to China. These concerns, combined with the current administration's focus on great power competition, renew long-standing questions about how we should measure national power, which nations have the most power, which states are gaining and losing power, and when such shifts in relative or perceived power might portend conflict. Heim will discuss a RAND report he recently published with Ben Miller that explores these questions.

Jacob Heim is a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he specializes in strategic assessment and defense analysis. In over 10 years at RAND, he has conducted research for the Air Force, Army, and Office of the Secretary of Defense on topics including the military balance in the Western Pacific, air base vulnerability to precision missile attacks, and China's evolving nuclear deterrent. From 2014-2017, Heim served as a strategic analyst in the office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Strategy and Force Development, where he advised the DASD on U.S. defense strategy and the evolution of military capabilities. In 2017, the Secretary of Defense awarded him the Defense Medal for Exceptional Public Service. Before RAND, Heim was a senior operations research analyst with the MITRE Corporation. He holds an M.A. with honors from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a B.A. with distinction in mathematics from Amherst College.